2013 Hawk Hitters Update 3/26/13

Hitters continuing to get a little hotter. Most incredible stat I came across was Josh Delph’s walk total. 23 BB to 4 K’s. His OBP is almost .500. A lot of Hawks actually have really good walk to strikeout numbers. It’ll be interesting to see if this carries over to the cape and the team works pitch counts.

Brian Anderson (Arkansas) INF-  GP/GS 24-24,

31 for 90, .344 avg, 21 R, 6 2B, 2 3B, 18 RBI, 4-4 SB, 16 BB, 8 SO

Tyler Spoon (Arkansas) OF- GP/GS 24-24

32 for 98, .327 avg, 16 R, 2 2B, 3 HR, 32 RBI, 5-6 SB, 8 BB, 8 SO

Jay Baum (Clemson) INF GP/GS 23-23

20 for 82, .244 avg, 11 R, 4 2B, 8 RBI, 7-12 SB, 11 BB, 10 SO

Landon Curry (Indiana State) OF GP/GS 18-18

20 for 71, .282 avg, 14 R, 2 2B, 10 RBI, 11-15 SB, 9 BB, 9 SO

Austin Cousino (Kentucky) OF GP/GS 23-23

27 for 94, .287 avg, 23 R, 4 2B, 4 HR, 16 RBI, 8-8 SB, 7 BB, 18 SO

Josh Delph (Florida State) IF-OF GP/GS 24-24

21 for 73, .288 avg, 23 R, 4 2B, 1 HR, 17 RBI, 4-7 SB, 23 BB, 4K

Skyler Ewing (Rice) 1B- C GP/GS 22-19

11 for 59, .186 avg, 6 R, 1 2b, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 0-0 SB, 8 BB, 15 SO

Dominic Jose (Stanford) OF GP/GS 14-13

12 for 47, .255 avg, 7 R, 1 2b, 4 RBI, 0-0 SB, 1 BB, 10 SO

Austin Slater (Stanford) SS GP/GS 17-15

20 for 63, .317 avg, 9 R, 3 2B, 1 3B, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 1-2 SB, 5 BB, 9 SO

Ryan Padilla (New Mexico) 1B- OF GP/GS 22-16,

16 for 66, .244 avg, 15 R, 3 2B, 1 HR, 8 RBI, 0-0 SB, 9 BB, 17 SO

Chase Griffin (Georgia Southern) C  GP/GS 23-23

30 for 94, .315 avg, 26 R, 3 2B, 1 3B, 4 HR, 31 RBI, 0-0 SB, 12 BB, 11 SO

Drew Stankiewicz (Arizona State) INF GP/GS 20-20

23 for 76, .303 avg, 10 R, 3 2B, 1 HR, 14 RBI, 3-5 SB, 1 BB, 13 SO

Andrew Istler (Duke) OF GP/GS 12-12

7 for 46, .152 avg,  3 R, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 0-1 SB, 4 BB, 12 SO

Shane Zeile (UCLA) C GP/GS 19-16

13 for 57, .228 avg, 7 R, 4 2B, 4 RBI, 1-1 SB, 6 BB, 17 SO  

Greg Mahle (UCSB) INF-P GP  14

5 for 35, .143 avg, 1 R, 3 RBI, 0-1 SB, 3 BB, 4 SO

Jeff Schalk (UAB) OF GP/GS 23-20

12 for 70, .171, 3 R, 1 2B, 1 HR, 4 RBI, 1-1 SB, 8 BB, 15 SO 

Harbor Hawk Update 2/18/13

 

 

I write to you tonight from the small town of Ninilchick, Alaska on the Kenai Peninsula. It is known as one of the best salmon fisheries in the world. Anyway, not a lot of games to update you on. 

Andrew Thome (North Dakota) – Pitched a 7 inning no-hitter. Talk about a way to open up a season. You can read all about it here. Thome is an interesting player. He quickly became the University of North Dakota’s ace during his freshman year. Thome’s season was highlighted by three shutouts.  Thome also led the team in ERA (3.58), Innings Pitched (93), Shutouts (3), Complete Games (6), and Strikeouts (65). Thome then played his summer ball in the NECBL. He went 0-4 with a 6.23 ERA. It concerns me that his conference lacks the depth he will be facing on the Cape. He also may have just gotten tired, as the innings started piling up for the freshman.  

Austin Cousino (Kentucky) Cousin played in a make up game today. He went 2-6, with 2 runs, and a SB.

 

Harbor Hawks Update 2/17/13

A really condensed update of today’s action. I spent the day traveling to Alaska and will be here for the next 9 days for work. Post’s may be erratic as I do not know where I will have internet. 

Brian Anderson (Arkansas) – 2-5 with 3 RBI. Off to a torrid start. A player to watch this season. 

Tyler Spoon (Arkansas) 3-4 with 1 HR, 2 RBI, 2 R, 1 SB. The HR king of the Alaskan Summer League gets his first of the 2013 NCAA season.

Sklyer Ewing (Rice)- 0-2 with a K

Dominic Jose (Stanford)- Did not play

Josh Delph (Florida State)- 0-2 w. BB

Jay Baum (Clemson)- 1-4 with a K

Jay Calhoun (Dallas Baptist) – Did not pitch

Cy Sneed (Dallas Baptist) – Did not pitch

Austin Cousino (Kentucky) – 1-4 1 run 4rbi 1 hr 1 sb Pulled due to blowout over Niagara

Jeff Schalk (UAB)- 1-3 with a HR. Schalk possesses all the tools to be a very successful hitter. Could have a massive year for UAB. 

Dylan Dickens (East Carolina)- DNP weather

Jordan Foley (Central Michigan)- Did not pitch

Kyle Freeland (Evansville)- Did not pitch

Chase Griffin (Georgia Southern)- 1-4 with an RBI and run.

Scott Simon (Washington State) – 4.1 4 h 1 er  0bb 0k relief. Simon looked very solid in his season debut.

Andrew Istler (Duke) – 1-4 with a run

Greg Mahle (UC Santa Barbara) – 0-5 w 1k

Taylor Martin (Kentucky) – Did not pitch

 Dylan Munger (UAB) – Did not pitch

Rocky Mccord (Auburn) – Did not pitch

Ryan Padilla (New Mexico)- Did not play

Drew Stankiewicz (Arizona State) – 2-4 with a run and RBI. Stankiewicz is definitely a player to keep an eye on. He is a freshman starting for a top program. Off to a hot start.  

Grant Watson (UCLA) – 6.0 ip/ 2H/ 0er /0 BB/ 8k Watson picked up where he left off. Looked very dominant and showed great control.

Shane Zeile (UCLA) – 0-5 with an RBI.

Andrew Thome (North Dakota) – Did not pitch.  

Landon Curry (Indiana State) – Box score unavailable. 

Should the Red Sox Fire Bobby Valentine?

 

After dropping 3 out of 4 to one of the few AL teams decidedly out of the playoff picture in the Minnesota Twins, the Red Sox currently sit at 54-55 on the season. All year the home town nine have hovered around the .500 mark and still have not played as well as the roster would lead you to believe it could. And now with 53 games left in the season, and the Sox stuck 4.5 games out of the second wild card spot behind three other teams, the inevitable calling for the manager’s head has hit full speed.

Bobby Valentine was hired by the Red Sox a type of clubhouse enforcer who would hold players accountable and not let the inmates run the asylum as they did in the 2^nd half last year. However, Valentine has not lived up to the hype, though it’s not particularly his fault. Beginning as early as Spring Training it was clear we were not getting the outspoken and opinionated manager many had heard on ESPN. Within the first couple of weeks Valentine backed off comments made on Sunday Night Baseball last year about Beckett’s pace of play and Crawford’s batting stance. Combine that with the most recent story of someone going behind his back to upper management about a comment aimed to pick up Will Middlebrooks after a tough inning in the field and we can all see that this was not the leadership Larry Lucchino was hoping for.

So should the Red Sox just go ahead and fire Bobby Valentine and begin to try and fix this team the way they should have after last season’s collapse? I will explore several points in favor of keeping Bobby V at the helm as well as why it’s best to just part ways right now.

Why they should fire Bobby V:

• There is an outside chance that a change of manager could spark the team and maybe propel them closer to grabbing the second wild card spot. It is not an unprecedented event as Joe Morgan was appointed interim manager in a similar situation at the All-Star break in 1988. The team then won 12 straight and the AL East.

• A lot of talk over the past ten months has revolved around the unity inside the Red Sox clubhouse and whether or not they are a team that actually fights for each other. There is a chance that Bobby is so disliked by the players that just removing him from the team could unite the players more than anything else.

• As odd as it sounds, firing Valentine right now would actually gain favor towards the Red Sox ownership from the fans. All we have gotten from Henry, Lucchino, and Werner over the past few years are various sales pitches on stupid items like bricks, coffee table books and CDs. It would be a huge step forward for them to come out and admit to a mistake and finally put the focus back on winning baseball games.

• If Tim Bogar (current bench coach) is someone the Red Sox are interested in seeing as a managerial candidate, this would be a great chance to see him in action. Letting Valentine go would allow Bogar to be appointed interim manager and give the team an extended interview for the open position come November. It is very unlikely that even if Bobby V makes it through the 2012 campaign that he would still be in charge come February, so why not see what you have in Bogar now and perhaps the team will take a shine to him.

 

Why they should keep Bobby V:

• If the Red Sox do fire Valentine now, there would be the perception that the clubhouse wins and ultimately has more power than the manager. After last season had ended, Francona admitted himself that he has lost some players in the locker room and could not reach through to them for motivation. All season it has been clear that the players do not like Bobby and rarely (if ever) have come to his defense. Even upper management has stranded Valentine alone on an island at times. So by getting rid of Valentine, you give full power to the players to simply force out any manager they do not see fit going forward, which is a dangerous precedent to set.

• Whenever a manager is fired in the second half of a season, it is can almost be seen as a waving of the white flag for that year. Although the Sox haven’t passed the “eye test” all season, the second wild card spot is not yet entirely out of reach. As I mentioned before, there are some cases where a managerial change could light a team for a stretch run, but that is a long shot and most of the time getting rid of the skipper signals the end of a team’s season.

• Although Valentine has received a lot of the attention this season, he is still not the biggest problem this team has. Valentine should not get most of the blame for the performances of Lester and Beckett this year or Buccholz’s and Adrian Gonzalez’s first half. The team chemistry was already questionable coming into Spring Training with guys looking for the “snitches” about the fried chicken and beer story being leaked. Valentine is also not the reason for Carl Crawford’s and Andrew Bailey’s always ongoing injury sagas.

 

I personally believe it is best to just fire Valentine right now and see what you’ve got in Tim Bogar. Best case scenario is that the team surges a bit and makes a bid for the playoffs. Worst case they stay around .500 and begin the evaluation process in October. Either way, the Sox should clean house in the off-season and re-build the team’s coaching staff and try to find a way to part with Josh Beckett and maybe even John Lackey.

First Half Recap

The Red Sox will begin the second half of their season tonight in Tampa Bay. Their first half was disappointing to say the least. Here’s a brief recap of what we have seen so far in 2012:

• Record: 43-43, 4th place in AL East
• Pythagorean W-L: 47-39 (What their record should be based on their runs scored and given up)
• Runs Scored Per Game: 5.02 (2nd in AL) [4.46 League Average]
• Runs Given Up Per Game: 4.52 (9th in AL) [4.37 League Average]

So what do these numbers tell us? The Red Sox are hitting well but their pitching has underperformed immensely. With Beckett, Lester, and Bucholz having sub par seasons thus far, we can at least hold onto some hope that they will get better. The team has also fallen victim to a little bit of bad luck based on their Pythagorean W-L record being 4 games better than their actual record. With some good luck in the second half they should be able to close that gap and make a run at the playoffs.

Jon Lester Is Their Ace

With Jon Lester’s struggles this season I have heard people say that he is not going to become the “ace” pitcher they thought he could be. Jon Lester does not need to become an “ace”, he has been one for four years. I am not sure where the impression that he wasn’t an “ace” came from, but lets look at how he compared to the rest of the American League from 2008 through 2011.

Ranks among AL starting pitchers 2008-2011 (min. 648 IP):

• ERA – 3.33 (5th)
• Wins – 65 (3rd)

• FIP – 3.43 (5th)
• K/9 – 8.68 (2nd)
• WAR – 20.9 (4th)

I split the list into two groups; the first is the more traditional stats used to evaluate pitchers and the second group is the more advanced and accurate metrics. Looking at either group puts Jon Lester at the top of the AL with the other aces like Verlander and Sabathia. But unfortunately, looking at these numbers also makes his first half performance even more disappointing.

Just How Good Has David Ortiz Been?

Earlier this week I declared that Big Papi was the greatest DH of all time. I wasn’t exactly going out on a limb with that statement, but it got me curious. Just how good has he been? Ortiz is a DH, so his overall value as a player is diminished by the fact that he does not contribute in the field. However, at the plate over the last 10 seasons David Ortiz has been one of the best hitter in the game.

From 2003-2012 David Ortiz has hit 338 home runs, only Pujols (384), A-Rod (343), and Adam Dunn (343) have hit more. One of the prerequisites of being a good DH is hitting for power and Ortiz has done it better than all but 3 players in Major League Baseball for 10 seasons. Another must for a DH is getting on base and Ortiz has done that very well too. Since 2003 Ortiz has walked 806 times, good for 6th in baseball.

Now let’s take a look at his overall production has a hitter. OPS is a good and easy to understand metric for estimating a players’ production at the plate. Since 2003 David Ortiz has logged a .959 OPS, good for 5th in baseball. The names in front of him are impressive: Bonds, Pujols, Manny, and Joey Votto.

David Ortiz is greatest DH of all time and is one of the best players of his era. If I had a Hall of Fame vote I would put him in Cooperstown (along with another great DH, Edgar Martinez). The odds are against him and I don’t think he will get into the Hall, but that does not take away from the fact that we have had the pleasure of watching one of baseball’s all-time greats.

Adrian!

What is wrong with Adrian Gonzalez? As of today Adrian’s OPS checks in at .707, a whopping .170 below his .877 career average. In fact, he had not posted an OPS below .900 since 2008. His season is looking more and more Carl Crawford like every day (Crawford posted a .694 OPS last season).

Let’s look a little deeper at his season so far. His BABIP (Batting Average on Balls in Play) is .299, below his .320 career average and not even close to his .380 last season. So he’s been the victim of some bad luck on balls he’s hit in play. He’s also not walking or hitting home runs. He’s posted a 7.3% walk rate (11% career) and is only hitting home runs on 6.2% of his fly balls (16.3% career). Interestingly though, he’s leading the league in doubles with. Without those double his season would be even worse.

So what should we expect going forward? Adrian is a great hitter, he should improve based on how he has hit for the majority of his career. He’s also been better in the second halves of seasons: .857 OPS in the first half vs. .903 in the second. The Red Sox have still managed to score the second most runs per game in the AL (5.19) without Adrian hitting. So his likely turnaround combined with the returns of Crawford and Ellsbury should bode very well for the Red Sox.

Top 5 Reasons To Be Excited About The Red Sox This Summer

The Red Sox are still in the basement of the AL East but there are 5 reasons to be excited about this team as we enter the summer.

5) Bad Luck: The Red Sox have been the victims of some bad luck this season. Their record currently stands at 35-33 but based on their runs scored and runs given up they should be 38-30. So if they hit and pitch the same as the season goes on their record should better reflect their performance.

4) The Bullpen: The Red Sox bullpen was a disaster in April posting a 6.10 ERA. However, since then they have been great, posting a 2.37 ERA in May and a 1.59 in June. Alfredo Aceves has been particularly good. Since his implosion against the Yankees in mid-April he is 15 of 16 in save chances with a 2.84 ERA and is averaging more than a strikeout per inning.

3) Returns: The Red Sox are awaiting three returns: Jacoby Ellsbury, Carl Crawford, and Jon Lester. Ellsbury and Crawford are returning from injuries and should be back mid-summer. We are waiting for the REAL Jon Lester to return. From 2008-2011 Lester posted a 3.33 ERA with 8.7 K/9. This season he has a 4.53 ERA with only 7.2 K/9. History tells us he is much better than he has been so far this season.

2) Young Players: Will Middlebrooks and Ryan Kalish are already here and we could eventually see Ryan Lavarnway. It’s always fun watching young players come into their own.

1) David Ortiz: Not only is Ortiz 3rd in the AL in OPS, he is 4 home runs away from 400. Only 48 players in history have more than 400 home runs. He has been on a mission this season and is making everyone (including myself) who thought he was washed up look foolish. He is already the greatest DH of all time and he’s now making his case for Cooperstown.

Bard to AAA

According to Peter Abraham (@PeteAbe) at the Boston Globe, Daniel Bard has been sent down to AAA Pawtucket. His transition to the starting rotation has not gone well and this move reflects that. Details are coming soon, but we don’t know the Red Sox reason for the demotion. As I see it, there are two possibilities: 1) They want him to work out his problems in the minors and hopefully come back to the rotation later in the season. 2) They want him to transition back into the bullpen. We should know shortly.